The Chart du Jour

The DJIA (Dec. 20 Closing = 11,144.10)

In Japanese Candlestick charting, last Friday's DJIA performance at new all-time highs represented an "evening star" formation. The follow-through decline Monday in a large black bar confirms that a top of some significance is likely to be in place. Elliotticians will also note that a clear minimum five wave advance from the October lows now appears potentially complete. The fact that today marked the 55th time the Nasdaq made new highs this year would also be a nice day to finish its current ebullience -- 55 being a Fibonacci number within the famous sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89...)

Although we continue to feel that the long term Fibonacci target for the Dow Jones Industrials discussed in our paper "A 13th Century Mathematician and the Current Rhythm of the DJIA" could still potentially be reached (Hint: It's really not that far away, but you need to buy the article to see the exact thought process and level), equity bulls should exercise extreme caution at this juncture. A down day tomorrow could easily send us spilling lower to 10,778.80 -- the 100-day moving average of the daily chart and near the 40-day moving average (currently 10,763.30) on the weekly chart.

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