The Chart du Jour

S&P Minimum Target Zone: 1274-1280

March 8, 2000

We first displayed the chart above back in December. It compares the "three thrust" structure of Lucent's weekly price action to that of the S&P, with Lucent acting as something of a leading indicator. From all appearances the roadmap continues to be holding. Next, we would expect some sort of an acceleration of the S&P decline which would take us to approximately the 100-week moving average.

Zooming in a bit at the daily price action, we also see a definite Fibonacci rhythm developing on the S&P that now eliminates 1313 as a target level for the decline to end, and extends it down to the 1274-1280 range. This is of course quite close to where the 100-week moving average pictured in the first chart can also be found. 1280 also equals approximately 38.2% of the 1998-2000 advance. Only in exceptional circumstances would we expect this region of support to be broken on first touch. But 1274-1280 is still over 5% below current levels which should certainly leave CNBC with something to talk about. I can hear the buzzwords and headlines already: "March Madness" they might call it, but it won't only be on the sports pages.

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