The Chart du Jour
But Cisco is almost at its 146 - 148 target. We have little doubt that it will achieve this target in short order. When it does, this company that as recently as October 1998 was trading at $21 a share, will have acquired a total market capitalization of $500 billion, a P/E ratio just short of 200-1, and a price to book value of 33-1. We don't care how "well positioned" fundamental analysts deem Cisco to be in the web-infrastructure business, this company will be a trading sale. The Fibonacci rhythm is very clear that 146-148 should be mega-resistance. And when Cisco peaks so too should the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100. Who knows -- maybe we'll also achieve our long-standing target on Global Crossing of $66-$68 at the same time. If so Leonardo Fibonacci would be shouting even louder from his 13th century Italian grave -- SELL!
From a timing stand-point we spy a "panic cycle" on the cycle models of Princeton Economics due next Thursday, March 16th. When I worked at Princeton Economics, I found that their panic cycles had at least an 80% success ratio prognosticating violent and important days that they labeled "panic cyles" -- often outside reversal days.
So let the party reign for just a bit longer, but if we make it all the way through March without some sort of Nasdaq accident, I will continue to be surprised. Long term LEAP puts should be the focus of one's attention as Cisco approaches its target in the sky.
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