The Chart du Jour

Panic Cycle Time

March 23, 2000

Marty Armstrong sits somewhere in jail, the victim of either his own agrandizement and trading ego that could not admit a loss, or the victim of some malevolant conspiracy that has left him as the unfortunate fall guy. His company, Princeton Economics, has just a handful of employees left, and is probably not long for this world.

But let us do a bit of a test today to see how Armstrong's models fair, for March 23 is due on his cycle maps as a "panic cycle day" within a "panic cycle week" for the DJIA. This translates that it should be an absolutely "wild" day -- perhaps with some sort of early intraday spike higher -- but with the definite potential for a reversal lower later on.

Given that Cisco also finally reached our 146 1/2 target most recently, we'll allow for a bit of an overshoot (particularly since we are working off of a monthly chart), but the Fibonacci rhythm here should be deemed complete. Fully baked. Done. The 14-month RSI also stands at an ungodly high level of 94. Is anyone left short this one? Somehow we doubt it.


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Given the huge volatility that we have been experiencing recently, it may be difficult to tell if Armstrong's "panic cycle day" hits or not. Every day seems like a panic day of late. Nonetheless, if Thursday proves exceptional for some reason, think of a poor middle-aged man who was formerly voted the best Economist in Japan for two consecutive years sitting in the New York Correctional Facility -- some element of brilliance now wasted, two children missing him at home.

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