The Chart du Jour

Too Complacent

April 6, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

My mother, an impressionist artist, called this evening and asked me whether "the crash" was over. The London Independent quotes a female U.S. day trader "I'm down 20 per cent. What can I tell you?" This lady missed the big slide in prices because she was sunning herself on a beach in Mexico, but she has no fear. "This may be a bust moment for the e-tailers and e-commerce companies, but the big backbone companies like Cisco will bounce back. We're seeing a lot of margin selling but I think the market will hit bottom soon," she explains.

Now statements like these belay how complacent this market has really become. While the type spiky downside action seen in the last two days (given some of the big rebounds) could in some circumstances be viewed as a finale to a move(maybe the B wave in a big Dec-Mar A-B-C 4th. wave chop), somehow we feel that this is potentially more serious...something is still building, instead of resolving itself. The average stock holder may be doing some reallocating of his portfolio between different sectors, but he has yet to flee equities altogether. Until that occurs for more than just 24 hours, the dislocations are likely to have only just begun. We still like a count on the DJIA below of a I-II... with a III wave decline potentially directly ahead.

A potential trigger? A nice accounting scandle at Cisco might certainly do the trick (some rumors already circulating thereto); or a major earthquake in Tokyo to join their exploding volcano? Or perhaps, looking at the charts of gold and bonds, one must wonder what this equity market would do if independently gold took off and bonds started to sag a la 1994. We are going to reserve for our subscribers (who may click here, and enter their user-id and password) to see what the current gold, XAU, and bond charts portend, or you may purchase any of the articles below and get this special Chart du Jour analysis for free at the end of the shopping cart process. There is a special link to click on.

Please support Sand Spring Advisors and purchase one of our more in-depth articles below.


How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.>

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.


Order multiple articles at the same time, and get a 20% discount on each.

  • E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
    This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street.
    Available for Purchase at $25.

  • A Certain Fixation, March 2000...
    This article looks at some of the psychological signs of a mania and asks in an academic fashion how a mania unfolds and tends to resolve itself. Two specific equity situations are discussed.
    Available for Purchase at $25.

  • Nasdaq Crash and Stopping Point?...February, 2000...
    This article examines the Elliott wave pattern of the Nasdaq's Price-Earnings Ratio since 1995, as well as various analog pattern matches involving the Nasdaq. It also looks at mutual fund cash levels, mutual fund positioning, and changes in the monetary base. It sketches out a possible path for the Nasdaq that may prove a valuable "roadmap" for trading over the balance of the year.
    Available for Purchase at $25

  • Subscribe to Sandspring.com on a quarterly basis and receive the above articles, and all that follow them (a minimum of 4 per quarter), plus all Chart du Jours (some of which would otherwise be pay-per-view) for just $65.

    If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

    Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
    973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

    information@Sandspring.com


    Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page


    Comments or Problems


    Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at
    information@Sandspring.com

    Corporate Office:
    10 Jenks Road,
    Morristown, NJ 07960
    Phone: 973 829 1962
    Facsimile: 973 829 1962

    Best Experienced with
    Microsoft Internet Explorer
    Click here to start.

    The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

    This page and all contents are Copyright 2000 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ