The Chart du Jour

Too Complacent

April 6, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

My mother, an impressionist artist, called this evening and asked me whether "the crash" was over. The London Independent quotes a female U.S. day trader "I'm down 20 per cent. What can I tell you?" This lady missed the big slide in prices because she was sunning herself on a beach in Mexico, but she has no fear. "This may be a bust moment for the e-tailers and e-commerce companies, but the big backbone companies like Cisco will bounce back. We're seeing a lot of margin selling but I think the market will hit bottom soon," she explains.

Now statements like these belay how complacent this market has really become. While the type spiky downside action seen in the last two days (given some of the big rebounds) could in some circumstances be viewed as a finale to a move(maybe the B wave in a big Dec-Mar A-B-C 4th. wave chop), somehow we feel that this is potentially more serious...something is still building, instead of resolving itself. The average stock holder may be doing some reallocating of his portfolio between different sectors, but he has yet to flee equities altogether. Until that occurs for more than just 24 hours, the dislocations are likely to have only just begun. We still like a count on the DJIA below of a I-II... with a III wave decline potentially directly ahead.

A potential trigger? A nice accounting scandle at Cisco might certainly do the trick (some rumors already circulating thereto); or a major earthquake in Tokyo to join their exploding volcano? Or perhaps, looking at the charts of gold and bonds, one must wonder what this equity market would do if independently gold took off and bonds started to sag a la 1994. We are going to reserve for our subscribers (who may click here, and enter their user-id and password) to see what the current gold, XAU, and bond charts portend, or you may purchase any of the articles below and get this special Chart du Jour analysis for free at the end of the shopping cart process. There is a special link to click on.

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