The Chart du Jour

Here Comes Wheat

May 8, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

First a note:

Friday's turn higher in the stock market was clearly a surprise to most on Wall Street including ourselves. Coming on our May 5 cycle date, we admit to being a bit concerned with our prior bearish interpretation of a decline into a mid-May low. But then whammo, Barron's published a front-page article making fun of Cisco's valuation. This should do the trick to stem this upmove rather quickly. In addition, after perusing a wide variety of equity charts, all that we really see is the chance for the French CAC to carry on to one more new high in the next few days (6667 being a logical stopping point from a Fibonacci rhythm perspective). Then, in the U.S. markets there is a weekly PEI "panic cycle" due the week of 5/15 in both the DJIA and the S&P. We thought originally that this would represent a tradeable equity market low and reversal up. If the current trading week breaks us significantly lower, this could still be the case. If the coming week is instead a choppy sideways affair or even a minor bounce, the week of May 15 could be even more dangerous. Any short term strength this week could actually be more intermediate term bearish for the market than was previously the case. We remain bears, and if our conviction is tested a bit more, will use that opportunity to increase our short exposure.

Another note: As Sand Spring Advisors prepares for the launch of its fund of funds product June 1, 2000, manager visits are drawing us away from the office a bit. Specifically, there will be no update to the Chart du Jour until this coming Wednesday. For subscribers, a new in-depth article is however in the works.

Lastly, let's take a look at a market we don't usually focus on to much, but which looks of some interest: July wheat. On a 60-minute basis, the market made a nice "spring" higher last week, closing above it's moving average resistance.


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

And on a monthly basis, this trodden-down market has some trendline resistance still to overcome, but it certainly looks capable of exploding higher toward 314.


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Could the sudden spate of unusually warm weather in the U.S. be the first sign of a long hot summer? We are by no means experts on the agriculturals, we do like the look of this chart pattern in the short to intermediate term. Maybe a march higher here will be enough to help the CRB reach our long standing target of 226.86.


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

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