The Chart du Jour

Here Comes Wheat

May 8, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

First a note:

Friday's turn higher in the stock market was clearly a surprise to most on Wall Street including ourselves. Coming on our May 5 cycle date, we admit to being a bit concerned with our prior bearish interpretation of a decline into a mid-May low. But then whammo, Barron's published a front-page article making fun of Cisco's valuation. This should do the trick to stem this upmove rather quickly. In addition, after perusing a wide variety of equity charts, all that we really see is the chance for the French CAC to carry on to one more new high in the next few days (6667 being a logical stopping point from a Fibonacci rhythm perspective). Then, in the U.S. markets there is a weekly PEI "panic cycle" due the week of 5/15 in both the DJIA and the S&P. We thought originally that this would represent a tradeable equity market low and reversal up. If the current trading week breaks us significantly lower, this could still be the case. If the coming week is instead a choppy sideways affair or even a minor bounce, the week of May 15 could be even more dangerous. Any short term strength this week could actually be more intermediate term bearish for the market than was previously the case. We remain bears, and if our conviction is tested a bit more, will use that opportunity to increase our short exposure.

Another note: As Sand Spring Advisors prepares for the launch of its fund of funds product June 1, 2000, manager visits are drawing us away from the office a bit. Specifically, there will be no update to the Chart du Jour until this coming Wednesday. For subscribers, a new in-depth article is however in the works.

Lastly, let's take a look at a market we don't usually focus on to much, but which looks of some interest: July wheat. On a 60-minute basis, the market made a nice "spring" higher last week, closing above it's moving average resistance.

Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

And on a monthly basis, this trodden-down market has some trendline resistance still to overcome, but it certainly looks capable of exploding higher toward 314.

Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Could the sudden spate of unusually warm weather in the U.S. be the first sign of a long hot summer? We are by no means experts on the agriculturals, we do like the look of this chart pattern in the short to intermediate term. Maybe a march higher here will be enough to help the CRB reach our long standing target of 226.86.

Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Please support Sand Spring Advisors and purchase one of our more in-depth articles below.

How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.>

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

Order multiple articles at the same time, and get a 20% discount on each.

  • Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
    As we enter the summer-time harvest season, this is a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB.
    Available for Purchase at $25.

  • E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
    This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street.
    Available for Purchase at $25.

  • A Certain Fixation, March 2000...
    This article looks at some of the psychological signs of a mania and asks in an academic fashion how a mania unfolds and tends to resolve itself. Two specific equity situations are discussed.
    Available for Purchase at $25.

  • Nasdaq Crash and Stopping Point?...February, 2000...
    This article examines the Elliott wave pattern of the Nasdaq's Price-Earnings Ratio since 1995, as well as various analog pattern matches involving the Nasdaq. It also looks at mutual fund cash levels, mutual fund positioning, and changes in the monetary base. It sketches out a possible path for the Nasdaq that may prove a valuable "roadmap" for trading over the balance of the year.
    Available for Purchase at $25

  • Subscribe to on a quarterly basis and receive the above articles, and all that follow them (a minimum of 4 per quarter), plus all Chart du Jours (some of which would otherwise be pay-per-view) for just $65.

    If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

    Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
    973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

    Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page

    Comments or Problems

    Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at

    Corporate Office:
    10 Jenks Road,
    Morristown, NJ 07960
    Phone: 973 829 1962
    Facsimile: 973 829 1962

    Best Experienced with
    Microsoft Internet Explorer
    Click here to start.

    The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

    This page and all contents are Copyright 2000 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ