The Chart du Jour
On May 24th we officially turned agnostic the U.S. equity market from our previous bearish stance. Then on May 28th we published a subscriber-only analysis of the broad NYA Index pointing to a general Fibonacci rhythm that is very troubling to the bear case. Now, for no particular reason other than a previously washed-out market pre the Memorial Day weekend, equities vaulted to the moon in Tuesday trading.
Is it real? Will it last?
Chances are that it will, at least for awhile. While the S&P 500 and DJIA never gave much downside satifaction, the Nasdaq 100 most certainly completed the minimum requirement of 5 waves down when it recently reached 2975. A bounce toward 3770 would be a natural phenomenon even if the ongoing longer term trend may be a bearish one. Moreover, when we look at individual Internet stocks such as Priceline.com, we cannot help but see a completed 5 waves down formation. Ever since people lept to pay $160 for this stock shortly after its IPO last year, the capital destruction in this stock has been constant and non-trivial. The fact that it did complete a 5-wave impulsive move to the downside is also bearish longer term. However, this same longer term bearish pattern still suggests a stock ready to come up for air in the short term.
We never thought six months ago that we would see the day when Sandspring.com would be posting the chart below, but for those so inclined, and only for a quick flip, we'd be tempted to buy Priceline.com. Egads, it pains us to say those words, but the Elliott rhythm basis the weekly chart looks quite clear.
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