The Chart du Jour

In Limbo

June 14, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

Think that Sandspring.com has been relatively quiet of late? You haven't seen any vociferous bearish perspectives on our pages?

Well that is certainly the case - we are in limbo. Unlike most who consider the long term fundamentals of the U.S. economy to be sound, while just the short term picture is a little more indefinite and shaky, we think quite the opposite. The long term picture to us is clearly one of gross equity overvaluation that will lead to a protracted period of disappointing equity returns -- perhaps for over a decade. It is just that the short term technical picture that is not all that bad. We still dislike the Nasdaq, but can make a positive case for the NYA. Perhaps the most clean and interesting looking technical pattern continues to be the series of inside months on the Value Line Index. Watch for a break of this four month "coiling" pattern to signal our next intermediate trend. Until we get such a resolution, a bit of patience is necessary. We're certainly not missing much sticking to the sidelines.


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

As one small comment while waiting for further clarification of the short term technical picture, we have published some stories of indiser trading machinations -- past and present -- that have occured in some of the ever-so-popular high tech stocks of the past year. This article is entitled "When Insiders Rule" and is available in the subscriber-only section of Sandspring.com. (Non-subscribers - see purchase terms below). We have also now released to the public the text of "A Certain Fixation," a previous missive written at the height of the early March equity madness. Please enjoy it by clicking here.

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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.


    • When Insiders Rule, June 2000...
      A look at recent manipulations of equities involving insider option trading, and a current large-cap high tech stock where the insiders are currently voting with their feet.
      Available for Purchase at $20.

    • Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
      As we enter the summer-time harvest season, this is a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB.
      Available for Purchase at $25.

    • E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
      This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street.
      Available for Purchase at $25.

    • Our January 14th article "Three Peaks and a Domed House - Revisited" successfully set a roadmap for the DJIA February decline. Read this article -- eight pages long and full of important charts -- and find out what we see longer term for the Nasdaq:

      Nasdaq Crash and Stopping Point?...February, 2000...
      This article examines the Elliott wave pattern of the Nasdaq's Price-Earnings Ratio since 1995, as well as various analog pattern matches involving the Nasdaq. It also looks at mutual fund cash levels, mutual fund positioning, and changes in the monetary base. It sketches out a possible path for the Nasdaq that may prove a valuable "roadmap" for trading over the balance of the year.
      Now available for FREE with the purchase of any other article or subscription.

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