The Chart du Jour

Internet Trouble & a Fulfilled Prognostication

June 24, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

Friday's slide in Amazon.com is richly satisfying to our views on this stock. It is also notable in so far as Amazon and many other dot-com stocks were never able to truly participate in the Nasdaq's recent substantive bounce. This remains a bearish omen not only for these stocks but the Nasdaq market as a whole. Take away the recent silly upside-spikiness in Micron and Intel, and this market is starting to act like a real disaster. We have left the trendlines and wave counts depicted on Amazon below exactly as we prognosticated them back in the April 19th. Chart du Jour. What we have updated are our Fibonacci bands. Using the internal rhythm of Amazon's manner of descent itself, we can now come up with extrapolated targets first of 28 7/8 and eventually 20 1/2.


Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

How fitting from a sociological point of view that Town and Country just did a feature on Seattle and Jeff Bezos of Amazon. Bezos himself may have said it best when he told the editors of that magazine that he was probably the geekiest guy to ever grace their pages. We doubt he'll be so featured in any such magazine again.

Meanwhile, note on the chart below -- also left completely unchanged from our May 8th. Chart du Jour -- the CRB reached our long-standing target Friday and immediately started to melt. A stiff pullback in the CRB will now become increasingly likely. We'd book some profits on this one, and stand aside.


Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

What's this mean for gold and wheat, the two commodities that we have been most friendly towards? The former has been struggling higher but without much pace. The latter still looks constructive. So if some commodities still look poised to go higher, how could the CRB retrace at the same time? A reversal in oil's strength looks like one possible and obvious candidate, although we do not have a definitive view of its internal rhythm of ascent.

One thing is clear: in general, the correlation between all these markets and between the broader indices continues to be poor. It's an attack-and-retreat situation-by-situation world, and if you pause too long to question what is really happening out there on a macro-fundamental basis, you end up scratching your head a la George Soros.

Please support Sand Spring Advisors and purchase one of our more in-depth articles below.


How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.>

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.


    • When Insiders Rule, June 2000...
      A look at recent manipulations of equities involving insider option trading, and a current large-cap high tech stock where the insiders are currently voting with their feet.
      Available for Purchase at $20.

    • Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
      As we enter the summer-time harvest season, this is a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB.
      Available for Purchase at $25.

    • E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
      This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street.
      Available for Purchase at $25.

    • Our January 14th article "Three Peaks and a Domed House - Revisited" successfully set a roadmap for the DJIA February decline. Read this article -- eight pages long and full of important charts -- and find out what we see longer term for the Nasdaq:

      Nasdaq Crash and Stopping Point?...February, 2000...
      This article examines the Elliott wave pattern of the Nasdaq's Price-Earnings Ratio since 1995, as well as various analog pattern matches involving the Nasdaq. It also looks at mutual fund cash levels, mutual fund positioning, and changes in the monetary base. It sketches out a possible path for the Nasdaq that may prove a valuable "roadmap" for trading over the balance of the year.
      Now available for FREE with the purchase of any other article or subscription.

    • Subscribe to Sandspring.com on a quarterly basis and receive the above articles, and all that follow them (a minimum of 4 per quarter), plus all Chart du Jours (some of which would otherwise be pay-per-view) for just $65.

    If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

    Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
    973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

    information@Sandspring.com


    Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page


    Comments or Problems


    Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at
    information@Sandspring.com

    Corporate Office:
    10 Jenks Road,
    Morristown, NJ 07960
    Phone: 973 829 1962
    Facsimile: 973 829 1962

    Best Experienced with
    Microsoft Internet Explorer
    Click here to start.

    The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

    This page and all contents are Copyright 2000 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ