The Chart du Jour

Internet Trouble & a Fulfilled Prognostication

June 24, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

Friday's slide in is richly satisfying to our views on this stock. It is also notable in so far as Amazon and many other dot-com stocks were never able to truly participate in the Nasdaq's recent substantive bounce. This remains a bearish omen not only for these stocks but the Nasdaq market as a whole. Take away the recent silly upside-spikiness in Micron and Intel, and this market is starting to act like a real disaster. We have left the trendlines and wave counts depicted on Amazon below exactly as we prognosticated them back in the April 19th. Chart du Jour. What we have updated are our Fibonacci bands. Using the internal rhythm of Amazon's manner of descent itself, we can now come up with extrapolated targets first of 28 7/8 and eventually 20 1/2.

Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

How fitting from a sociological point of view that Town and Country just did a feature on Seattle and Jeff Bezos of Amazon. Bezos himself may have said it best when he told the editors of that magazine that he was probably the geekiest guy to ever grace their pages. We doubt he'll be so featured in any such magazine again.

Meanwhile, note on the chart below -- also left completely unchanged from our May 8th. Chart du Jour -- the CRB reached our long-standing target Friday and immediately started to melt. A stiff pullback in the CRB will now become increasingly likely. We'd book some profits on this one, and stand aside.

Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

What's this mean for gold and wheat, the two commodities that we have been most friendly towards? The former has been struggling higher but without much pace. The latter still looks constructive. So if some commodities still look poised to go higher, how could the CRB retrace at the same time? A reversal in oil's strength looks like one possible and obvious candidate, although we do not have a definitive view of its internal rhythm of ascent.

One thing is clear: in general, the correlation between all these markets and between the broader indices continues to be poor. It's an attack-and-retreat situation-by-situation world, and if you pause too long to question what is really happening out there on a macro-fundamental basis, you end up scratching your head a la George Soros.

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