The Chart du Jour
We could easily be bearish on the Nasdaq Composite chart pictured on the right above. The Fibonacci rhythm of this chart suggests at least one more plunge to new lows toward 2,883. The problem is that we are somewhat stultified by the chart on the left of the old Value Line Index -- a multi-month coil pattern that appears to be breaking to the topside, but taking its sweet time getting on with it. On a closer examination (on the daily chart below), the Value Line pattern has already experienced one false break up and one false break down out of this pattern. It's next move should be a real one. The recent impulsive 5-wave rally is encouraging for the bulls, and a high close for the month would certainly tip the scales that this little watched index is going north.
So if we seem particularly quiet in our prognostications late this summer, it is because we are carefully watching these two very diffrent looking pictures of the monthly Value Line and the weekly Nasdaq. Could it be that the former will break up and the latter will break down? Two years ago we would have said that the correlation between all the different indices is too high to allow that to happen. Given all the dispersions of price behavior to date in 1999-2000, however, we are not so sure. Maybe a rotation out of high profile names like Intel, Cisco, and Micron and into small cap names would allow this to happen. If it does, the result will be dizzying and confusing for even the most sophisticated investors out there.
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