The Chart du Jour

A Jump World in Some Danger

September 29, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

When we prognostigated that Apple Computer was headed to 29 1/2 on September 14th. we were strong in our view. What we would never have imagined happening was that almost this entire drop could transpire in one day! Now if a stock like Apple can do this, so can Cisco, so can GE. Don't kid yourself.

Chart courtesy of

But what do we make that Apple has even dropped below our 29 1/2 target as this is written? Perhaps it's an overshoot, perhaps it is something more. After all, if that Head and Shoulders top formation we see above has a traditional Edwards & Magee target, this target would be toward $5 (head at $75 - neckline around $40 = $35, subtracted from the neckline = $5 target). Nonetheless, we'd just cover our shorts here and say thank you. In this rotational bear market, surely we can find other stocks setting themselves up to be tomorrow's disaster de jour. Apple was simply today's. On a standalone basis, as well, perhaps this chart pattern of Apple will reafford the chance to sell just under the neckline at $40 at some point.

Meanwhile, we are concerned that the above chart of Apple might in ways be a forebearer for the chart of the Nasdaq as a whole. Note how both charts start to fail under their longer term moving averages, and then eat away at their Bollinger Band support. We now know what's happened to Apple. Could a similar 'jump move' lower be awaiting the Nasdaq early next week? We fear it may.

Chart courtesy of

Anytime we are this close to a potential 'crash type pattern' of price action, it's time to pull out our bear mascot below. We do so sparingly.

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