The Chart du Jour
In Elliott terms are we in a III-wave down or a C-wave of a huge corrective period since our momentum high in 1999? Look at the behavior of late of Intel, Apple, Micron, Applied Material, and one might easily conclude it is a dangerous III wave. But let's be generous for a moment, and pretend that we believe it is just a C-wave. Let's even look for a stock that has a nice A-B-C corrective shape to it -- perhaps, Global Crossing.
Although there is plenty of impulsiveness to count on this chart both up and down, the overall pattern looks like a huge A-B-C. The only problem for the bulls, however, is that C-waves almost invariably will carry below the A-wave low...so even if this is all some ungodly huge corrective period, Global Crossing is likely to take out its 20 1/4 low established September 10, 1999. Specifically, a spike down to 15 1/4 is entirely likely basis Fibonacci rhythms.
We present Global Crossing today, simply because its recent uptrend line on both a weekly and daily basis (the latter not shown) look singularly prone to a downside failure at this time. Call this the beginning of a 5th wave down of a C-wave, or the c of an a-b-c C-wave, it doesn't matter. The short term implications are the same: further weakness must come before the chance for a lasting reversal up.
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