The Chart du Jour

Motorola: Into Support

October 11, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

A few days ago we got an e-mail from a reader all hot to sell short a variety of different stocks. One of them included Motorola, a stock we have not recently commented on in these pages.

For that investor and others, we want to start offering a bit of caution. The meltdown in telecom may not be quite over, but it's getting pretty late in the game to establish new shorts right here. Note on the monthly chart below of Motorola, that we are now in the range of a 61.8% retracement of the entire 1990-2000 upmove in Motorola. Short term overshoots to the downside are likely, but overall, the $22-$26 region is NOT a high probability point to add or establish shorts -- not in Motorola at least.


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Unlike so many companies out there, Motorola and Lucent are at least real companies with real earnings. No, they are not going to grow at the previously perceived 25% a year, but no, they are not going to go away or collapse. At this point in the game, we'd be more worried about all the other companies out there that still sport several billion dollar capitalizations, have tons of broken convertible debt outstanding, but may or may not survive to service this debt longer term. We'd also be worried about the financial repercussions of the people who own all this junk-like paper -- i.e. the financial sector.

For further thoughts on this subject, we direct subscribers to re-read our September article "Where the Excess Lies."

For immediate web-based access to this Oct 5th-dated cycle date analysis, please support Sand Spring Advisors and purchase a quarterly subscription below. Our latest work will be accessible on the final page of the order process. A user-id and password for web access to all past and future acrticles will follow by e-mail.


How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.


If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

information@Sandspring.com


Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page


Comments or Problems


Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at
information@Sandspring.com

Corporate Office:
10 Jenks Road,
Morristown, NJ 07960
Phone: 973 829 1962
Facsimile: 973 829 1962

Best Experienced with
Microsoft Internet Explorer
Click here to start.

The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

This page and all contents are Copyright 2000 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ