The Chart du Jour

Un-Opened Envelopes

October 25, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

I had lunch with my 73 year-old mother today. She is a great impressionist painter, but also fancies herself as a qualified investor on the basis of cocktail-talk banter. For years she has owned such companies as Microsoft, Lucent, Intel, GE, and Corning Glass Works. It's been so easy to believe one is so smart, and despite all my pleadings throughout this year in particular, she never sells. So I asked her today how much money she had lost in the recent market downdraft? 30% of her portfolios value? Maybe 40% or more?

Do you know her answer? "I haven't been opening my brokerage statement envelopes. I don't want to know. I can't bring myself to open them."

Now if this is not an archtypical anecdotal sign of denial in today's market, I don't know what is. When I advised her that it was not too late to dump GE, the stock only being down 10% or so since the Honeywell merger announcement, she even insisted to me that GE hadn't recently been falling. More denial. It truly is amazing what tricks the human brain can play on people who just don't want to wake up and admit their mistakes.

At Sand Spring, we make mistakes as well, but we tend to admit them rather quickly. Although bearish Lucent at $80, we thought it would find some Fibonacci support toward $40. When it slipped to $37, we were out again, suggesting a price more toward $15 was even possible given the huge head and shoulders top. Now we wish to admit another mistake. Bearish Intel from above $100, we previously suggested Fibonacci support should exist for that stock around $42-43 which ended up giving way earlier this month. After the recent bounce, we now have to ask: How low is really low on Intel? $42-$43 not having held the first time down, how far could this stock really fall? Restretching our Fibonacci bands once again on the chart below, we now see the possibility in time to reach $22! Will denial still prevail then? We hope not, but for now, and despite recent massive losses, America's love affair with equity investing seems ever so slow to die.


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

For immediate web-based access to our latest subscriber-only analysis, please support Sand Spring Advisors and purchase a quarterly subscription below. Our latest work will be accessible on the final page of the order process. A user-id and password for web access to all past and future articles will follow by e-mail.


How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.


If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

information@Sandspring.com


Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page


Comments or Problems


Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at
information@Sandspring.com

Corporate Office:
10 Jenks Road,
Morristown, NJ 07960
Phone: 973 829 1962
Facsimile: 973 829 1962

Best Experienced with
Microsoft Internet Explorer
Click here to start.

The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

This page and all contents are Copyright 2000 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ