The Chart du Jour

S&P Defensive Tactics

November 3, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

A confused or just stubbornly bearish analyst?

As astute as some of our calls were back in late August, September, and early October, the price action of the major indices of late has left us a bit perplexed. We remain bearish, but have now suffered two of our technical resistence levels getting taken out...first 10,305 on the DJIA a while ago, and more recently 1421 on the cash S&P. Anytime a market starts to do something it wasn't supposed to do, it may be prudent to head for the sidelines for a bit.

That said, the next key resistence on the S&P 500 cash now stands between 1445-1455 where both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are rolling over above the current price action. As long as we don't close above these moving averages, the recent rally must be viewed as little more than an a-b-c non-impulsive set-up before further declines. This cluster of moving average resistence as well as Bollinger Band resistence is depicted below. Although it is generally not a good practice, we'll amend our "line in the sand" bearishness to the higher of these two moving averages. Below them, stay bearish. A close above, it's best to get out of the way. One would not want to be steam-rolled by a Bush victory and Republican dance for joy.

Chart courtesy of

We will keep readers updated as to our equity views, particularly as further evidence of an on-going bear market arrives or not. But until the election is over, we also hope to focus on one or two other markets to which we have not devoted much time of late.

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