The Chart du Jour

Hourly DJIA: New Highs but No New View

The DJIA may have been able to make marginal new highs in Monday's trading, but the hourly wave count at best has migrated from our anticipated II wave to either a v of (iii) of V, or perhaps even a v of (v) of V already.

The week is young, and we still face what should be a watershed day Thursday when Intel releases its 4th quarter earnings and profit forecast for the 1st quarter of 2000. Given the amount of business that AMD stole away from Intel in the 4th quarter (when AMD's high-end chips were clearly superior to Intel's high-end product line), Intel is going to need truly creative accounting not to disappoint. Perhaps this will be the "lightbulb" to finally kick off a sustainable decline in the grossly overbought high tech world.

As long as the DJIA has not closed above 11,541 for the week, the intermediate story should be the same: it's time to take money off the table in equities. The first time back down, the DJIA will now encounter some support at the 11,275-11,350 cluster of moving averages, but longer term, enough is enough. For those who remain blithely invested at this juncture, gross "hubris" is the only description that readily comes to mind.


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