The Chart du Jour

Crude to Bounce

December 10, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Back in our November 19th missive "The Rhythm of Oil," we forecast that crude oil would launch a final spike higher into this past week, followed by the beginning of a bear retracement of multiple months. While natural gas did indeed spike higher in a manner consistent with our vision, crude oil and other petroleum futures collapsed instead. Our analysis was clearly wrong, and for that we apologize.

That said, we thought it worth taking another look at crude -- at least with a short-term perspective. The above chart depicts January crude on a 60-minute basis. It looks to us relatively tight and complete to the downside on a Fibonacci basis. A solid bounce, if nothing more than that, should now transpire. Even if the intermediate term trend may have turned down, we think it is a high-probability proposition that a bounce to $30.91 is in the cards in the coming days. Above that, $32.79 is the next level of resistence -- marking both a 61.8% retracement and the 100-hour moving average.

And what of equities, you say? Friday's intraday 38-point advance in the S&P 500 was truly impressive, and the subsequent 40-point plunge in the last fifteen minutes of futures trading truly scary. Net, net, we thought the week of Dec 4th. would bring a Nasdaq low toward 2450 and reversal, and it did. We now consider ourselves flat and univolved -- and happy to be that way. There are no low risk bets in equity futures at the moment. If our life depended upon it, a choppy bias to the upside continues as our more favored short-term proclivity. Longer term, rallies toward 3,200 on the Nasdaq are likely to peter out and fail.

For immediate web-based access to our latest subscriber-only November 19th analysis, please support Sand Spring Advisors and purchase a quarterly subscription below. Our latest work will be accessible on the final page of the order process. A user-id and password for web access to all past and future articles will follow by e-mail.

How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page

Comments or Problems

Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at

Corporate Office:
10 Jenks Road,
Morristown, NJ 07960
Phone: 973 829 1962
Facsimile: 973 829 1962

Best Experienced with
Microsoft Internet Explorer
Click here to start.

The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

This page and all contents are Copyright 2000 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ