The Chart du Jour


December 21, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Back on November 9th. we pointed to eight stocks, and warned subscribers: "Don't Look for a Bottom Until..." the majority of these stocks reached specific downside objectives. These objectives were on average about 30% lower than those stocks were trading at that time. We focused on these stocks because they appeared to have the clearest Fibonacci rhythms to their price patterns.

Well, we are pleased to report that five out of the eight stocks examined then have now either reached or gone beyond our downside targets. This includes Microsoft (pictured above) and Cisco (not pictured) both of which got there today. Two of the other stocks are getting very close to their objectives, and only one, Intel, has a bit farther to go.

Is this enough? In Microsoft, likely. In the broader market, 1241 on the S&P 500 still appeals. The scary part now is to watch what may or may not happen with margin calls or mutual fund redemptions. Looking back for two years, even David Tice of the horribly under-performing Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) is now beating the Janus Venture Fund (JAVTX), as shown below.

Chart courtesy of

If redemptions ever start flowing out of the go-go fund families like Janus in any size, the downside destruction could become silly. Could year end tax loss selling of such funds further exacerbate the situation?

Bottom pick at your own risk.

I for one am going to enjoy this Christmas on the ski slopes with my family. Barring an over-impulsive desire to log-on to my laptop, will return January 3rd.

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