The Chart du Jour
By now everyone knows that the telephone equipment and semiconductor supply chain is over-stuffed with unwanted inventories. For example, chip-maker Xilinx (pictured above) has had its inventory levels more than double over the past nine months.
And yet this stock still offers a relatively perfect sell set-up: A large distribution top that could potentially be called a head and shoulders formation; a broken trendline; and then one last reaction spike higher back toward the now-broken trendline. If the Fibonacci rhythm implies anything, it would be another stock about to halve in value toward $20 a share.
People think stocks are now cheap in the same way people thought gold was cheap in 1981-82 at $400 an ounce (admittedly down from $800) -- just before gold plunged all the way down to $295. Sure some stocks have already halved, and some Internet stocks have gone down by over 90%, but complacency and bottom pickers still abound.
These people need to be washed out with some greater degree of pain before a healthier bounce can occur.
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