The Chart du Jour

With the Weather Turning Frightful...

March 4, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

The chart above is a continuous nearby futures of Natural Gas, and currently reflects the April contract. As is self-evident, the market has recently retraced almost 61.8% of its 1999-2000 move higher. The Fibonacci rhythm measured from the top down looks relatively complete as well, and suggests at least a short term bounce of some magnitude is possible.

Now suddenly a major blizzard appears to be bearing down on the U.S. northeast. We think this will be an excuse for a rally that could easily move up 10-15% from current levels.

Longer term, we have no definitive opinion on natural gas, and we also need to warn that the chart above shows a far more dramatic pullback basis the continuous chart when one compares this to the actual performance of the April futures themselves (which several contracts out at the natural gas peak last December, never came close to the 1.01 high).

But for those quick and nimble to buy a few futures this Sunday evening in the electronic trading, we'd target to sell them somewhere toward 61.80-61.93.


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