The Chart du Jour

Do Nothing, Be Happy

March 9, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

The world is falling: Intel finally fessed up with a massive pre-announcement of weakness in all its business units. This is something that has literally been brewing ever since the first quarter of 2000 when a post-Y2K hangover in computer purchasing set in. They just didn't tell us until now.

Does that mean you are supposed to go out and dump the stock?

As subscribers may remember, when Intel was back at $43 on November 9, 2000 we suggested it would not be finished its already significant slide at that date until it eventually reached $23. We still feel that way, although we have since given up at seeing this level reached straight away. Much backing and filling later, we'd rather expect to see this level in November-December of this year instead of now.

What do we expect then? In a nutshell: Greenspan to be a wimp and use Intel's pre-announcement as his obvious trigger to cut interest rates at an opportune moment.

As demarcated on the chart above basis Fibonacci rhythms, Intel's a trading buy at $23, and a huge sale at $49. In between, right here, chasing this stock lower risks getting caught in a Greenspan-inspired squeeze. So do nothing, be happy.

Concentrate on other markets such as Euro/yen, USD/JPY, and gold where better opportunities abound. Indeed, for one of the more compelling write-ups on the increasingly stagflationary environment in which we live, click here for a great essay by Toqueville Asset Management's John Hathaway. We agree most whole-heartedly with many of his longer-term macro assertions.


Subscribers are invited to click here for immediate access to our latest in-depth article: "Measuring Financial Time: The Magic of Pi." The article is 10 pages in length, and in it, we touch upon two centuries of financial history. We also leave readers with our cyclical vision for the next decade, as well as a shorter term perspective of the NASDAQ 100 index for the balance of the year.

Non-subscribers are invited to sign up for a quarterly subscription below.

It also may be of interest to some as well that because so much time (and thus timeliness) has now transpired, we recently released three of our 2000 subscriber-only articles. These now appear under the public Earlier Articles section of the website. Perusing through them may give one a sense of the added premium level of analysis we provide to subscribers.

For immediate web-based access to our latest subscriber-only February 25th analysis, please support Sand Spring Advisors and purchase a quarterly subscription below. Our latest work will be accessible on the final page of the order process. A user-id and password for web access to all past and future articles will follow by e-mail.


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