The Chart du Jour

A Second Line in the Sand

March 30, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib


Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Readers of these pages know that despite being longer term bears, we had long been targeting 1680-1735 as significant Fibonacci support on the Nasdaq 100, and a target zone to potentially launch a tradeable counter-trend rally. And yet a few days ago we were stopped out below 1645, and as of Thursday's close the market has now extended well beyond this region.

This action has led us to redraw our Fibonacci bands on the chart above in search of the next zone of support. The current level around 1565-1580 honestly doesn't do much for us. It is only down between 1425 and 1475 that we see another convergence of Fib levels as well as a leftover trendline drawn up from the 1998 lows.

We offer this to our readers with no specific short term trading advice toward trying to pick a bottom. The "rubber band" of undue financial leverage to carry equity positions has been stretched so far, that many problems could be brewing behind the scenes at financial institutions. Risking any more capital on this falling knife blade is thus not a good risk-reward proposition. But academically at least, one might anticipate the 1425-1475 region to hold.

We apologize once again for having been pre-mature in our exit from the short-side of this market. It seems that when it rains, it truly pours, and Friday's forecast for Wall Street quite literally is for three inches of heavy rain. Maybe this will bring one last bit of equity capitulation on high volume before the sun of spring finally re-emerges.


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It also may be of interest to some as well that because so much time (and thus timeliness) has now transpired, we recently released three of our 2000 subscriber-only articles. These now appear under the public Earlier Articles section of the website. Perusing through them may give one a sense of the added premium level of analysis we provide to subscribers.

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