The Chart du Jour

Biotech Re-Blossom?

April 15, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib


Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

There is no doubt that telecom tech is dead. Sure, we'll have our 20-30% bounce periods, but the bloom is off the rose. Everyone knows that there was a gross over-build of infrastructure and capacity, and all that capacity is still sloshing around, largely unpaid for with borrowed funds.

But how about biotech?

While it always pains us on Sandspring.com (and is certainly out of our norm) to post an overtly bullish looking chart pattern, the chart above of the Biotechnology Index appears to us as potential a fourth wave completed, now headed to an eventual new 5th wave high. To confirm our opinion, we asked the Advanced GET program what it would assign as a computer-generated wave count, and starting from the Sep '98 low, it too predicts a 5th wave new high.

Maybe all the money (or what's left of it) piles into this sector. People certainly have yet to give up buying stocks in general, and so we must go with the flow, and not rule out another round of silly performance chasing.

Sand Spring will be on the road this week interviewing hedge fund managers and feeling the pulse of the markets across the fine cities of Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle. We will likely have scant opportunity to update these pages until April 23rd at which time we will also be starting to prepare our monthly subscriber-only analysis. Please forgive our short absence.


Non-subscribers are invited to sign up for a quarterly subscription below. Sand Spring's latest subscriber-only article "Four Themes for 2001 and Beyond," as well as our prior February 20th article "Measuring Financial Time: The Magic of Pi," will both be accessible on the final page of the order process. A user-id and password for web access to all past and future articles will then follow by e-mail.

It may also be of interest to some that because so much time (and thus timeliness) has now transpired, we recently released three of our 2000 subscriber-only articles. These now appear under the public Earlier Articles section of the website. Perusing through them may give one a sense of the added premium level of analysis we provide to subscribers.


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