The Chart du Jour
I go away for a few days, and the financial world goes crazy. First, the masses feel compelled to buy every beaten-up tech stock on the Fed rate cut. Now the masses feel compelled to dump them again on a second glance at the still poor fundamentals and inventory overhangs.
All the noise and wasted energy chasing prices up and down is nothing short of amazing. As the old saying goes, "Wall Street is a street with a river on one end and a graveyard at the other," but there most certainly still appears to be a large playground for silly investors in the middle.
Are we bullish or bearish you ask? Mildly bullish continues to be our answer, but in a traders' scalping manner. Most immediately, we'd be looking to buy S&P 500 weakness toward 1188, and lighten up on strength toward the 100-day moving average that currently stands at 1270.50. Our sign to stay with this strategy will be the ability of this market to avoid intersecting the top of its first impulsive move higher at 1183.35 achieved back on March 27th.
If this latter level were to get intersected, it would be the first warning sign that this market is starting to fail again. It would not be an immediate indication to go short, mind you, but just a warning sign that we've likely had an A-B-C bounce with little more behind it. We honestly don't think such an intersection will be achieved, although we might get pretty close at 1188 support.
Trade the chop if you must, but if you do, avoid the semiconductor sector that still appears quite vulnerable. Better yet, if you want something compelling in which to truly invest in, just stay long gold. With Greenspan pushing on a reflationist string, it is the only low risk and obvious late-cycle play we currently see.
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