The Chart du Jour

Hi Ho, Hi Ho,
It's Higher Gold Should Go

April 30, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

In perusing the charts for the coming week, the most compelling daily chart pattern we could find appears to be gold. Gold's firm close on Friday within the $260-$267 range presages on a charting basis alone the emergence of a more steady and impressive upmove in the next few days.

On a weekly chart basis, is $350 possible? Leonardo Fibonacci, if alive and looking at the chart below, would say yes.

Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Moreover, we had occasion last week to speak with a few old cohorts still in the metals business. Never have we heard a body of people so depressed, even as gold is slowly turning higher. It's almost as if they all know the metal is tight to borrow, and lease rates have started to trade more actively, but because of their long involvement in this market, their brains are stultified from seeing or believing in the new bullish trend.

But for us it's not that hard to see or accept. The Fed eases in an attempt to throw the tech world a life line, and another unintended consequence results: a late cycle precious metals move. It's like pushing a balloon into a multi-sided open box: push too hard on one side, and something unforseen pops out another side. The recent drubbing of the 10-year and 30-year bonds are sending us a similar message.

We're buyers of gold with a trading stop set just under $259.

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