The Chart du Jour

Short-term Dow Targets

June 26, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day>

Certain of our competitors in the Elliott wave space have recently been looking for a "2 wave" low in the major equity indices while we have remained steadfastly bearish on this market since our June 2nd cycle date.

As the Dow now starts to truly break lower, short term traders may want to keep two levels in mind for bop-and-weave profit taking within an overall bearish intermediate context. These levels are: 10,232.5 (an approximate 50% retracement of the March 22-May 22 advance), and 9966.8 (an approximate 61.8% retracement level of the same advance).

Our intermediate call is for a long and difficult summer, but for those inclined to trade a bit, these levels (and particularly the latter one) are the expected regions where the market bulls may attempt a last stand. On the way there, between 10,500 and 10,232.50, we do see something akin to an "air-pocket" existing without significant support.

In lieu of a 2-wave low, within a corrective A of a IV wave, are we just beginning a 5th wave decline in the Nasdaq and a potential 3-wave impulsive decline in the Dow? Unlike others, this is certainly the risk we continue to focus on.


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