The Chart du Jour

Fear Factor

July 24, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

If there has been one thing lacking in recent bottoming attempts by the U.S. equity market, it has been any sense of fear. With the recent slide of the market in the past two days, that fear is starting to finally build, but we are likely still at the early end of a nasty 5th wave down.

Indeed, if one looks at the Fibonacci rhythm of the SOX Index, a case can be made that 1713 is an eventual target-- thereby yielding a full retracement of the 1998-2000 advance. If such a level is eventually reached, look for a good bit of fear and anxiety to rule at that point in time -- certainly far more than does now.

Society is of course often reflective of itself. How noteworthy it is that one of America's most popular new television shows is "Fear Factor" where, in a NBC prime-time Sunday night slot, six contestants are forced to endure horrific and often disgusting trials (eating sheep eyeballs, lying in a plexiglass-filled grave of live worms, being covered in snakes etc.). This is most certainly not bull market programming.

We do not mean to over-analyze America's current psyche, but the appearance and apparent popularity of such a show at this time certainly is anecdotally interesting -- as true fear also builds on Wall Street.


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