The Chart du Jour

One Right, One Early, One New

August 8, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

Would you buy a multi-year variable annuity equity product from financially shaky Conseco? I certainly wouldn't. Nor did many investors flock into Conseco annuity products during the most recent quarter. Tuesday's disappointing earnings announcement from Conseco sent that stock down to an $11 handle. It was clearly the day's single biggest financial story -- the newest crack in the tender ice equity bulls are standing on -- and yet CNBC only mentioned it once or twice in passing, and did zero in-depth analysis of this "turn-around insurer" that consistently fails to turn around.

We think we had a pretty good read on Conseco's chart pattern back on May 15th, 2001 when we penned article "Irwin Jacobs Be Quiet." Conseco was above $19 a share at that time, and we compared it to a likely Reliance price path. We update that still dangerously negative chart pattern below -- one analysis that we appear to have gotten very much right so far.

Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

In late May as well, we suggested to subscribers that the stocks of Providian, Capital One, and Americredit -- all sub-Prime credit card purveyors -- were likely good short selling candidates. Providian has since yielded some satisfaction from that view, Capital One is still around the levels where we turned particularly negative on it, but one stock, Americredit -- originally shorted near $47 a share -- has most definately hurt us. Now at a price above $60, we have updated our Fibonacci bands and fundamental stats below, and are tempted to take another short selling shot at this previously premature short-sale recommendation.

Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Lastly, we cannot help but comment on the lovely Elliott wave rhythm to the weekly price chart of Dell Computer -- a rhythm that suggests one final low is still missing in this pattern. This missing final low appears in many other tech chart patterns, and while the amount of time required to reach such a target remains largely unknown, we would certainly hold off trying to bottom- pick Dell until we have a $12 handle.

Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Non-subscribers are invited to sign up for a quarterly subscription below. Sand Spring's latest thoughts will all be accessible via an immediate e-mail. A user-id and password for web access to all past and future articles will then follow by a separate e-mail.

How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page

Comments or Problems

Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at

Corporate Office:
10 Jenks Road,
Morristown, NJ 07960
Phone: 973 829 1962
Facsimile: 973 829 1962

Best Experienced with
Microsoft Internet Explorer
Click here to start.

The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

This page and all contents are Copyright 2000 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ