The Chart du Jour
Would you buy a multi-year variable annuity equity product from financially shaky Conseco? I certainly wouldn't. Nor did many investors flock into Conseco annuity products during the most recent quarter. Tuesday's disappointing earnings announcement from Conseco sent that stock down to an $11 handle. It was clearly the day's single biggest financial story -- the newest crack in the tender ice equity bulls are standing on -- and yet CNBC only mentioned it once or twice in passing, and did zero in-depth analysis of this "turn-around insurer" that consistently fails to turn around.
We think we had a pretty good read on Conseco's chart pattern back on May 15th, 2001 when we penned article "Irwin Jacobs Be Quiet." Conseco was above $19 a share at that time, and we compared it to a likely Reliance price path. We update that still dangerously negative chart pattern below -- one analysis that we appear to have gotten very much right so far.
In late May as well, we suggested to subscribers that the stocks of Providian, Capital One, and Americredit -- all sub-Prime credit card purveyors -- were likely good short selling candidates. Providian has since yielded some satisfaction from that view, Capital One is still around the levels where we turned particularly negative on it, but one stock, Americredit -- originally shorted near $47 a share -- has most definately hurt us. Now at a price above $60, we have updated our Fibonacci bands and fundamental stats below, and are tempted to take another short selling shot at this previously premature short-sale recommendation.
Lastly, we cannot help but comment on the lovely Elliott wave rhythm to the weekly price chart of Dell Computer -- a rhythm that suggests one final low is still missing in this pattern. This missing final low appears in many other tech chart patterns, and while the amount of time required to reach such a target remains largely unknown, we would certainly hold off trying to bottom- pick Dell until we have a $12 handle.
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