The Chart du Jour

Euro Thoughts

September 1, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

Back on October 27, 2000 the euro left a low at 82.28. At the time, this was not a level that we found of any great Fibonacci importance, and thus since that time, we have never been entirely happy with this low. In our opinion, .8050 or even .7750 would both represent better longer term downside targets basis Fibonacci rhythms for the European currency to eventually reach.

The euro has of course launched a somewhat substantive rally since last October, and a few subscribers have recently asked us our opinion of the euro from here.

First, let us preface that the euro chart pattern is a slightly jumbled one and it is not the most compelling pattern we have ever seen -- certainly not as compelling as the current patterns in the precious metals. Yet, as shown on the weekly and daily charts below, we think the euro is likely poised to assault the .9670-.9730 region first, before heading to eventual new lows longer term. This may well represent a final C wave rally within a complex and large 4th wave period. We'd look for the euro top somewhere in the October-February time window, with substantive renewed dollar strength to re-emerge thereafter.


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day


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