The Chart du Jour

Perspectives on Where We Are

September 10, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

Subscribers are invited to click here to access this month's feature article entitled "Perspectives on Where We Are Now, & Why ISDA Documentation Will Not Prevent Derivatives Accidents."

In this 13-page article we review many of our past individual stock technical perspectives, and come forth with a new group of stocks we currently see cheaply valued and starting to gain in strength. We also update specific downside targets for various equities yet to fall from grace.

What we do not do is tell readers how low the S&P or Dow Jones may go, trying instead to concentrate on a micro-basis on the clearest individual equity rhythms that we see. Some stocks have already reached significant support areas; others appear to be just beginning their descent. Perhaps partly because of this, we currently find numerous downside Fibonacci objectives -- both nearby and far away -- that could still be reached.

Rather than concentrating on specific index price objectives, we are instead focusing on a specific time window for the broader market to make a momentum low, and will likely remain modestly bearish until that point. As that date approcahes, we will then re-examine the technical action brought by the market for technical clues of a potential reversal in-the-making.

In addition, we feel that pressures on many leveraged strategies are currently building, and that the choice between a market crash and a market bottom might easily be decided in the near future by whether anything goes seriously astray in the banking derivatives world. We thus focus a bit on this topic, and describe how easily ISDA documentation can be weakened when special addendums are added. We also show through a historical example how, when a daisy chain of defaults occur, too much money can simply end up on the table, and the derivatives world ends up heading for the courts.

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