The Chart du Jour

Potential Short-Term Path into Volatile Days

September 28, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

We have very little to say about the longer-term trends within the equity market at this point, so forgive us to focus a bit on the short term, and try to prognosticate the possible path that major equity indices might take over the next few trading days.

In the chart above we see the S&P 500 cash index as a 60-minute chart back to early January. Measured from the late January highs (which was not a major high overall, but simply the high for this year), we see the possibility at some point of a jam-job occuring that could take the S&P 500 back up to 1049 moving average and Fibonacci resistance. In Elliott terms this would likely be the first a-b-c of a larger sloppy corrective period.

If such a move could happen on the last day of the quarter (this Friday), so much the better of course for most big institutional money managers. It would yield a small smile to people's lips, and the media would be filled with comments about a market "suddenly back from the dead." October 2nd is also Fed rate cut day and a full moon, and as such, perhaps a logical day for happy euphoria on an A-B-C bounce period to end.

Then, if we've gotten that much right, next week we are looking for hostilities against terrorism (and potentially from terrorism) to heat up again starting on Tuesday, October 2nd. We pick this date partly off of Arch Crawford's call for "Oct. 2-4: Intense Planetary Activity. You will remember these days! Mars forms a T-Cross with Jupiter/Pluto Opposition." For those who don't know Arch, all I can say is that despite his astro methodologies that many would consider over-the-top, I have seen him nail some pretty amazing dates of significance in the past.

(Please note that subsequent to the first posting of this article, one reader has also written into us pointing out that October 4th. is a scheduled laying of a new Corner Stone for Israel's Third Temple. See this link. This action is to take place on the Muslem holy place the Dome of the Rock, and one can only imagine the tension and violence that such an act might cause. If the U.S. allows this corner-stone laying to take place in the current swirl of tension, Bush will go down a notch in my regard.)

Left to one's druthers, Oct 3-4 might then be days to stay far away from urban centers, and hopefully just be watching the sky ablaze over northern Afghanistan on the tube. It also might be a set-up for a retest of Sep 21 equity lows as we move into our long-held cycle date low near October 11th.

Please consider all of the above as a very tentative attempt to piece together the technical, psychological, and geo-physical evidence in front of us going into what might well be the most volatile week yet in terms of war, agression, and markets.

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