The Chart du Jour
There is little doubt that many stocks became oversold into the September 24th low in the major indices. And we are currently launching an impressive bounce. Readers of past Sand Spring articles also know that we have cyclically long targeted making a tradeable low in October. Now that we are within October, and given our current neutral stance, are we missing the opportunity of a lifetime to pick up dirt cheap stocks?
Perhaps, but we think not. The rally off the low, while impressive, and potentially even deserving of being labeled impulsive, has been too sharp and too fast. The September 24th low needs to be retested at some point, and we continue to see that possibility occuring into the October 11th cycle date window.
Our short term call for a market high October 2nd at or near 1045 has obviously been blown away. The next region of resistence, as pictured above is near 1083. We'll allow for small intra-day overshoots of that new upside resistence zone, but we think eventually the current "V" bottom left September 24th needs a serious retest.
Is 944 to 1083 just defining a new trading range? In our opinion, yes. We see no rush to chase this market higher right here.
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