The Chart du Jour
Today, let me just take a moment to point out two things.
Despite recent disappointment in the world of gold, this market has now fallen to be just above moving average support, having filled in many "holes" in its swift rally higher in September. In theory at least, this level should hold, but for those worried not to get stuck in another losing gold position, stops set near $272 would be the way to go.
Secondly, depicted below is a long term picture of the euro-yen cross. This cross fell slightly below 100 earlier this year, rallied to our anticipated first level of resistance near 110, and has been stagnating near there ever since. To us, this now looks like a continuation pattern that may end up marking half of the ultimate move. 118 and then 122 now represent new upside price objectives, with minor resistance near 113 along the way.
Although one may never be sure when looking at a cross-rate in FX, we'd expect the upside potential in euroyen to primarily be driven by an ever-weakening yen. After all, when 0% interest rates don't work, and limited monetization of one's debt doesn't work, what's the last choice to try? Devalue one's own currency is the path the BOJ and MOF should endeavor to pursue. And through history, no central bank that has ever endeavored to devalue its own currency has ever ultimately failed in its efforts to do so.
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