The Chart du Jour

Broken Trendline Retests: Time to Sell

November 9, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

One of the cardinal lessons of traditional Edwards & Magee technical analysis is that when a trendline gets broken, prices will often bounce back under the broken trendline, before beginning a true descent. So it appears to be with today's DJIA pictured below.

Chart constructed with Advanced GET End-of-Day>

Adding Fibonacci retracement bands to the price action, we can also now discern a most clear downside price target: 7725 - a level from which our retracement bands will "fit" the recent price action far better than the September 21st bottom.

There is no telling of course if a downmove to such a target is set to transpire quickly or take further time to develop. Corrective waves such as the one we have recently experienced can become complex and last longer than anyone desires. Subscribers know that we have two potential "turning" dates in mind in late December and then again in February. But whether these turns will be highs or lows remains unclear at present. All we know is that when our cycle date of October 11th failed to materialize into a significant low, the odds for a significant low in February increased significantly. We also know from the chart above that the current level of the DJIA is not one to complacently be looking for much upside follow-through. It is instead a level ripe to disappoint premature bulls.

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