Sand Spring Advisors LLC
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January 14, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
Gold rallied nicely last week, but it is now into the teeth of short-term resistance that we previously pointed to near 289.50. Is it time to take profits or get more excited about a real blast off?
We do not have a definitive answer to that question. It is certainly time to watch the price action a bit more carefully, perhaps.
Elsewhere, we do see is one ancilary sign for gold that that is quite encouraging: Agricultural commodity markets such as wheat and soybeans have also been rallying over the last two weeks. Indeed, when we look at the beautifully "tight" Fibonacci rhythm depicted above on July Soybeans, we feel that it is not a question of "if" soybeans will reach the depicted target of 6.23 1/2, but simply a question of "how long" it will take for such a rally to transpire -- a few weeks, a few months? The recent "spring" formation and rally is an impressive looking formation from which we have previously seen markets truly take off. 6.23 1/2 is of course almost 50% higher than current levels.
Would a full-fledged war in Kashmir somehow be a potential factor to the ag-market, or the ongoing unrest in Argentina? Perhaps soybeans now represent a store of value ( "a poor man's gold," so to speak) in Argentina as their paper money continues to tumble.
We are not fundamental experts, but we do like the chart pattern of soybeans. Seeing the market turn higher in the first week of a new year may easily be setting a theme for the rest of the year as well. Do your own research, follow your own technical nose, but to us it seems appropriate to establish long positions on any short-term pullbacks with stops set below the lows made during the first week of January.
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