Sand Spring Advisors LLC
No Easy Answers
February 18, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
As longtime readers know, February 19th is a potential minor cycle date of ours. Unfortunately, when we examine the actual price action coming into this date, we see nothing of true signficance. As much as we would like to give an easy answer as to the stock market's new direction, the best we can come up with is that this market will continue to "hurk and jerk" in some fashion similar to that depicted above.
Specifically, given the market's emerging rhythm, we now see the current advance since September 21st as likely incomplete. There is a strong probability that after a bit more immediate weakness into late February, that yet another rally will unfold up towards 10,528. This will be just far enough to give CNBC some reason to cheer and convince some that the bull market is back. But alas, it will not be. From that extrapolated minor high, we see yet another period of disappointment following -- eventually leading to a 8644 low -- just far enough to once again scare the living daylights out of most weak longs. But even then, we don't see the chop abating, as one last viscious rally could bring the Dow back up to 10,793 -- a level that would be our idealized high for the far more important early November 4.3-year anniversary of the July 1998 equity cycle top. The whole of the pattern will represent a huge A-B-C corrective mush.
By that point, most will be convinced that all is safe again in equity-land. It won't be. Instead, a very tough 2.15 years will just be beginning where Americans should learn the true pain of excess debt. The period from November 2002 to early January 2005 will be one of the most difficult periods of "debt deflation" America's markets have ever seen. The ever-rising property market will take it on the chin, as will those who use 90% financing to buy their houses today. As much as people talk about the Enron scandle today, the GSE GMNA and Fannie Mae scandals of this latter period will be far worse. 7700-7800 on the Dow will beckon during this period.
First, though there will be no easy answers. There will instead continue to be many false (even if significant) moves. As a first step in this process, we see immediate market weakness likely to fall no further than 9721 on the Dow before a surprise upside vault suddenly begins.
How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.
Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).
Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.
If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"
Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page
Comments or Problems
Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at information@Sandspring.com
10 Jenks Road,
Morristown, NJ 07960
Phone: 973 829 1962
Facsimile: 973 829 1962
Best Experienced with
The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC
This page and all contents are Copyright © 2000 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ