Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Six Months Later
March 8, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
As CBS will remind us on Sunday night, it's been six months six the World Trade Center disaster. During that time, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has clawed its way back from the initial 5-day plunge experienced between September 17 and September 21.
But all of our Fibonacci rhythm analysis suggests that with time one further low in the DJTA is still missing, and eventually will be reached. Specifically, after what will surely be a period of more backing and filling, we eventually see this index gravitating to 1788.
Does that mean that another terrorist attack will shortly be upon us? Or maybe we will experience a substantive California earthquake that will disrupt coast-to-coast air travel. Or maybe some dour thoughts in the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter to Shareholders (due out this weekend from Mr. Buffet) will suffice.
We truly do not know what tomorrow's headlines will bring, and we sincerely hope that it will not be something that results in a large loss of life. That said, the DJTA looks fully baked to the upside, and now that psychology is back to expecting economic recovery, we think the DJTA is prone for yet another "unexpected" fall.
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