Sand Spring Advisors LLC
St. Patrick's Day Wish
March 17, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
We are headed off on a few days of business and vacation this week. Postings may be light until the week of March 25th when we will also be working to release our next subscriber-only monthly article. We are planning in this article (or the next if something more pressing comes up in the interim) to spend a considerable amount of time focused on pension fund liability issues and the companies in trouble from them. It is a fascinating and increasingly relevant topic that everyone should be aware of who is an equity trader/investor.
But before we leave for a few days, let us make one St. Patrick's Day wish: Could the PHLX Semiconductor Index please return to its senses sometime soon?
Last week we threw at the SOX Index disappointing news from both Nokia and from Oracle, creating a fairly steep -7% reversal in the Index's prior week's substantive gains. Notwithstanding, the SOX Index still resides some 63% above its late September 2001 lows. It is becoming increasingly recognized by even the most slow-witted mainstream Wall Street analysts that there is no burgeoning recovery in the PC business. At the same time, a persistent overcapcity of cell phones exists. Yet, why is it that people have felt so compelled to chase valuations higher in stocks like Intel, Texas Instruments and Micron that provide chip components to these ultimate users? It makes little sense to us.
So with a bit of luck from the Irish, maybe we can hope for a bit more sanity to come. To us the chart above looks like a false breakout, with an ultimate low in the SOX still somewhere still in the offing toward 247.70.
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