Sand Spring Advisors LLC

DJTA Trouble

April 21, 2002

by, Barclay T. Leib


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Awhile back, we put forward that the Dow Jones Transportation Average was still missing one more low toward 17,880. Since that time, the DJTA's relatively steep up-trendline from September has broken. We still feel a last plunge lower is imminent, but taking a slightly finer look at the chart above, maybe 18,560 is a safer objective. We have marked on the chart above a few minor stopping points likely on the way down, but our ultimate target is still a whopping 33.7% decline from current levels.

And what could cause such a fall? Much as we hesitate to even contemplate such, another successful terrorist attack seems the only likely answer.

Astro-analyst Arch Crawford sees the period April 22-24 as bringing some "wildly unstable trends" with a bigger risk of downward price action as we move toward the Full Moon of April 26th. This is not a time to time to be day- trading a range or allow oneself to get caught long.


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