Sand Spring Advisors LLC
May 20, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
If the rally in stocks like Applied Material (trading at 10 times revenues, and 140 times next year's EPS), Dell, and Intel over the past week were not irritating enough, Sandspring has been handed two horrific experiences of late.
First, I personally suffered through some nasty and major sinus surgery last week to ensure that over time, my nasal passages continue to function in some capacity.
Second, no sooner was I on the mend from the surgery, but our offices experienced a bizarre and yet to be explained fire. (How can a lounge chair catch on fire with no one in the building?) As I type this on a keyboard literally covered in dust and ash (that unfortunately now permeates the entire building), I think I can empathize a bit more with those who were unfortunate enough to have habitats near to the World Trade Center. One room of our office has been destroyed, but it is the dust and ash elsewhere which is going to represent a huge clean-up effort.
If Sandspring has already been somewhat quiet over the past week, we therefore apologize that this will likely now continue in the short term while we resurrect our offices and deal with insurance claims and the like.
We also recognize that markets have rallied surprisingly in advance of when we have forecast a more sustainable low in late June. This does not mean that a late June cycle low will not still occur, but instead, that our May 27 full moon/long weekend combination will likely usher in this period of descent (instead of being an initial momentum low, as we previously prognosticated). Ominously, if June does not eventually yield a tradeable low of some sort, then our forecast for a November cycle high will be in grave jeopardy.
Our belief in a once-again nasty path from May 27th onward is potentially supported by a warning from astro-market analyst Arch Crawford, who for all his eclectic ways, we respect as having genuinely nailed various important dates through history. Crawford writes:
"The June 10 Solar Eclipse joins Saturn and Moon's Node in opposition to Pluto! When a Lunar Eclipse conjoined Pluto in April 1986, Chernobyl blew its top in 2-3 days! In this case, Uranus is in half-aspect (75 degrees to Pluto and 105 to the multiple conjunction opposing Pluto) making this a candidate for one of the worst days in all of recorded history. The last time we said: "This will be one of the worst days of this century," Saddam Hussein pulled his surprise attack on Kuwait. Mars will activate this Eclipse on May 12 and again on September 29."
For us, disaster feels as if it has already struck. For the rest of you, extremely conservative investing should still rule for now.
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