Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Sandspring Hurt

May 20, 2002

by, Barclay T. Leib

If the rally in stocks like Applied Material (trading at 10 times revenues, and 140 times next year's EPS), Dell, and Intel over the past week were not irritating enough, Sandspring has been handed two horrific experiences of late.

First, I personally suffered through some nasty and major sinus surgery last week to ensure that over time, my nasal passages continue to function in some capacity.

Second, no sooner was I on the mend from the surgery, but our offices experienced a bizarre and yet to be explained fire. (How can a lounge chair catch on fire with no one in the building?) As I type this on a keyboard literally covered in dust and ash (that unfortunately now permeates the entire building), I think I can empathize a bit more with those who were unfortunate enough to have habitats near to the World Trade Center. One room of our office has been destroyed, but it is the dust and ash elsewhere which is going to represent a huge clean-up effort.

If Sandspring has already been somewhat quiet over the past week, we therefore apologize that this will likely now continue in the short term while we resurrect our offices and deal with insurance claims and the like.

We also recognize that markets have rallied surprisingly in advance of when we have forecast a more sustainable low in late June. This does not mean that a late June cycle low will not still occur, but instead, that our May 27 full moon/long weekend combination will likely usher in this period of descent (instead of being an initial momentum low, as we previously prognosticated). Ominously, if June does not eventually yield a tradeable low of some sort, then our forecast for a November cycle high will be in grave jeopardy.

Our belief in a once-again nasty path from May 27th onward is potentially supported by a warning from astro-market analyst Arch Crawford, who for all his eclectic ways, we respect as having genuinely nailed various important dates through history. Crawford writes:

"The June 10 Solar Eclipse joins Saturn and Moon's Node in opposition to Pluto! When a Lunar Eclipse conjoined Pluto in April 1986, Chernobyl blew its top in 2-3 days! In this case, Uranus is in half-aspect (75 degrees to Pluto and 105 to the multiple conjunction opposing Pluto) making this a candidate for one of the worst days in all of recorded history. The last time we said: "This will be one of the worst days of this century," Saddam Hussein pulled his surprise attack on Kuwait. Mars will activate this Eclipse on May 12 and again on September 29."

For us, disaster feels as if it has already struck. For the rest of you, extremely conservative investing should still rule for now.

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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.


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    Within this article we explore much misunderstood and underestimated ERISA and FAS accounting that could cause a two-decade long malaise in corporate profitability. We also update many of our previously espoused long and short views. ...
    Available for Purchase at $35. THIS INCLUDES ALL ARTICLES BELOW FOR FREE.

    • Complicated Moves...February 2002...
      A temporarily bullish look at the DJIA, written in late February 2002, together with a discussion of several value stocks that we like within this market.

    • Zig-Zag Markets, and What Will Go Thud that Hasn't Already...January 2002...
      In this article, we discuss the path we expect into our important November 2002 cycle date, and several specific short selling opportunities in industries as far afield as trucks to bread...
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    • 2002: A Golden Year? ...December 2001...
      In this article, we explore the cyclical rhythm of the gold and gold equity market, and what it portends for next year. Several stock-specific charts and fundamentals are examined...
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    • Kasriel to Greenspan: Farewell Soon? ...November 2001...
      In this article, across 17 chart-filled pages, Northern Trust chief economist Paul Kasriel scathingly exposes many of the flaws of Alan Greenspan's Fed, and how Greenspan may actually have set the economy up for the 2000 Tech-Wreck...
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    • The Cycle of War & The Agony of Debt...October 2001...
      In this article, across 12 chart-filled pages, we explore how relative geo-political calm can suddenly digress to a temper-filled period of war, as well as current fundamental pressures on the U.S. economy from excessive corporate and household debt burdens...
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    • Perspectives on Where We Are, and Why ISDA Documentation Will Not Prevent Derivatives Accidents, September 2001...
      An update on prior views and prognostications, as well as a discussion of a new market sector now potentially coming to life on the long side. We also examine how easy it might be for a major bank such as JP Morgan to someday suffer a serious derivatives accident
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    • Long_Term Equity, Gold, and K-Wave Cycle Thoughts, August 2001...
      A long-term look at our own cycle theories and how they may potentially interact with the famous Kondratieff cycle
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    • The Importance of June 2nd, May, 2001...
      A cyclical look at the 8.6 month cycle at work in the current equity market, and one financial stock with a nasty looking "pattern match" to a historical chart pattern
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    • Expert Short Picks, May, 2001...
      A discussion of the fundamental thoughts of short selling hedge fund manager James Chanos within a technical framework
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    • Four Themes for 2001 & Beyond, April, 2001...
      A variety of issues we see growing in importance over the year 2001, with a particular emphasis on certain issues within the U.S. food chain.
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    • Measuring Financial Time: The Magic of Pi, February 28, 2001...
      Two centuries of financial history within a cyclical and mathematical framework, including an analog roadmap for the NASDAQ to potentially follow in 2001.
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    • Portfolio from Hell, January 20, 2001...
      a close critique of a major mutual fund manager and a technical look at the individual equity components of their go-go portfolio.
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    • Positive for Now, January 4, 2001...
      If the DJIA were to vault to new highs, where would the imbedded Fibonacci rhythm of its price action lead?
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    • Time to Start Accumulating the Golds? - Dec. 2000...
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    • Don't Look for a Bottom Until..., Nov. 2000...
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    • Diamonds in the Sky, Oct. 2000...
      A close technical look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the implications of the formation it has made.
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    • The Signficance of Oct 27- Nov 1, Oct. 2000...
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    • M&A Currency Imbalances, Oct. 2000...
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    • Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
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    • E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
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    • Nasdaq Crash and Stopping Point?...February, 2000...
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