Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Firm Objectives, But When?

June 20, 2002

by, Barclay T. Leib


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Much as it did back in September 2000, Apple Computer -- on the back of lowered earnings estimates --led the computer box makers lower in Wednesday trading. If our extrapolated Fibonacci bands are correct, AAPL could someday see prices close to $7.55 in a final 5th wave plunge to its current formation. And Dell's very similar chart pattern still points toward the $12.40-12.70 region.

These targets are clear. Infinitely less clear, however, is how long it might take to reach these targets. Could they be reached as quickly as our June 28th cycle date? A mere six trading days until then makes this highly unlikely -- there is still too much ground to travel. Could such prices be reached by our Nov 2002 4.3-year cycle date? Maybe, but then again, other tech stocks have already reached short term support (For example, IBM's previously espoused target of between 73-75 is already here). A greater sense of fear has started to creep into the markets. It certainly feels like a short-term market low should be in the offing toward month-end. Might it be possible for these downside targets on AAPL and DELL not to become reached until 2003-2004 -- perhaps after a period of reprieve between late June and early November? That would be possible as well, albeit this may seem too far away to keep the weekly Elliott Wave counts of AAPL and DELL as clean and obvious as they appear today.

We do not have an immediate answer to this timing question. What we do know is that for the next 6 trading days, downside pressure should rule. Then we'll see how things look to determine the next piece of this timing jigsaw.

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