Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Sometimes Early, But Is That an Hourly Triple Bottom Forming?
July 9, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
Long-term subscribers know that if we have a tendancy at Sandspring.com, it is sometimes to be a bit early in our prognostications, rather than late. The basic convergence of a market low at our cycle date in late June together with our espoused 970 target on the Nasdaq 100 beached reached within the same time window, sent us springing though the gate in our Monday subscriber-only missive calling for a significant market reversal.
The timing of that article's release was not perfect in the short term, as the market experienced a sharp pull-back Monday and Tuesday, but looking at the chart above of the S&P 500 on an hourly basis, we still feel there is a reasonably strong chance that a triple bottom is in the process of forming here. If we end up being wrong about this, then perhaps one more thrust to the bottom of the depicted red channel line (approx 928) is needed, but we'd still expect a major low to be forming in July. As is our occasional prcoclivity, we may simply end up having been a bit early. But then again, our cycle work and Fibonacci work both jibed, so we had to go with them.
Much the same can be said for our dollar view. We have previously espoused a target of 1.00 on the euro and .6833 on the Sep Swiss franc. Both are close at hand. We'll allow for a possible overshoot up to around 1.01 on the euro and .6890 on Sep SF, but likely no further on either. Dollar bears should already be in profit taking mode. Do not get greedy. We would not go short the euro or SF, but we would certainly consider actively selling the yen here. The Fibonacci rhythm depicted on the hourly chart below looks nice and tight and complete.
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