Sand Spring Advisors LLC
July 11, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
Disgusted - That's what investors clearly are with the equity market, and that is what we clearly are with our subscriber-only foray of July 8th that prematurely anticipated a market bottom.
We based that analysis in part on the fact that the Nasdaq 100 had reached important Fibonacci support in the 970 region within an important cycle window. Indeed, the Nasdaq 100 has actually been holding in this region since then, but in an apparent sector rotation, the Biotech sector that we decided to feature in our recent article (together with a number of big-cap names) suddenly took it on the chin.
We have previously featured negative charts on such big cap names as Johnson & Johnson, Pfyzer, GM, Philip Morris, and Walmart. We even devoted a whole article to negative pension fund accrual issues that lurk over this market -- particularly in the case of GM. This is a long-term issue that's been with us for awhile and is not going away. Thus, to have GM pummeled today when a certain Wall Street analyst finally warned of mounting pension-fund accounting losses at GM, is both rewarding to us (that we were early reporting this to subscribers), but also somewhat silly (The pension problem at GM is not that much greater today for GM than it was a month ago or will be a month from now).
Overall, we are frustrated and disappointed at our own July 8th analysis, and will now retreat from commentary for a few days until we have something more cogent and cohesive to say. Over time, we have been right on so many macro and market timing issues that it truly hurts to have our batting average knocked down. In this instance, we turned technically bullish short-term but without a good fundamental catalyst to help the short-term bullish argument.
For this, we apologize.
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