Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Yen to Weaken
August 1, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
Stocks now range trade, while markets like crude oil remain somewhat bid only because of the perception that the U.S. will soon attack Saddam. As sunspots slowly diminish in the heavens, however, we do not believe that war with Iraq is imminent. Could Bush even risk such an attack with the equity market already so low? And with time, we believe simple supply and demand considerations within global crude markets will drive crude prices substantially lower.
Meanwhile, from the 135.19 USD high against the yen back in February, USD/JPY now finds itself having fallen below 120 -- indeed, all the way to 115.52 just two weeks ago. But with time, our Fibonacci bands suggest 145.77 should be the next technical level to be reached.
In addition to positions short the energy complex, therefore, long the U.S. dollar against the yen is generally a second theme we still like from current levels. 122.47-123.40 will likely cap this market in the short term, but we see little to stop the yen from starting a real decline against the dollar as August drifts into fall. After all, wouldn't such a move be in almost everyone's best interest?
Over the next 5 years, the U.S. dollar could continue to be weak against many global currencies, but against the yen, our broader vision would see continued strength. Indeed, after a slow grind up to 145.77, the entire monthly pennant that we are currently forming (pictured below) could act as a nice springboard toward 167.50-168.00.
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