Sand Spring Advisors LLC

CRB and Soybean Fib Rhythms Complete

August 14, 2002

by, Barclay T. Leib

Back on January 14, 2002, we wrote about a potentially bullish Fibonacci fractal rhythm that we had spotted in Soybeans. Later, on February 10, 2002, we got nervous looking at the CRB chart on a pattern match basis when compared to a similar looking formation from a prior Nikkei chart.

As it turns out, our first instincts were correct, and today Soybeans reached the previously espoused target at 623 1/2 and then promptly reversed. The CRB did not initially follow our potential Nikkei pattern match, but continued to rally instead. We now wish to note on the chart below that on the same day that Soybeans reached our original Fib target, we also see a complete looking Fibonacci fractal structure to the CRB advance as well.


Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day

We have previously espoused our bearish few of the charts within the oil sector. To date, the jury is largely still out on that view. At the margin, we have been wrong in the short-term, although we professed no specific time-table for this market to break down. For subscribers, we also espoused that gold would need to make two firm closes above 315.20 spot to suggest another leg up toward 350-355. Despite a bit of recent frothiness, two such closes have yet to be achieved. Soybeans now look toppy, as does the CRB. One market we have been correct on has been copper that has declined by 13% since we posted bearish commentary on it and silver back on June 17, 2002.

Are the commodity markets as a whole slowly moving in line for a combined decline? As the eqity market -- albeit in fits and starts -- slowly comes up for breath, it certainly feels that the commodity sector is starting to turn top-heavy.

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