Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Past Implications of Outside Weekly Key Reversals
October 11, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
An "outside weekly key bullish reversal" is a week that makes new lows within a trend when compared to immediately preceeding weeks, but then rallies to close above the prior week's high. An "outside weekly key bearish reversal" is a week that makes new weekly highs within a trend, only to then close below the low of the prior week.
Such weeks do not happen often, but such happened in each of the Dow Jones Industrial, S&P, and Nasdaq indices this past week.
Indeed, no sooner did we feel it prudent to throw in the towel on our short-term bullish view for an equity market rally into November 7th, than the market produced a prompt reversal from new lows to the upside. This "hook move" truly appears to have "hooked" us given our equally strong desire to adhere to prudent risk management.
Was this past week the end of 5 of I wave down in lieu of the B of IV wave pattern we first believed to be within? It certainly now feels more to have been such -- since 5th waves often involve just marginal new lows while B waves rarely (but occasionally) take such an "irregular" path.
Whatever the correct wave count, it remains a fact that since 1987, such a reversal pattern on the DJIA has specifically only happened (from either a high or a low position) on eight prior occasions. We have marked each of these occasions on the chart above.
The immediate implication of each of the prior key reversal patterns has always been either a period of consolidation (at a minimum) or more often a significant continuation in the direction of the reversal for multiple weeks.
So maybe our first instincts were correct to anticipate strength into November.
In no few words, this market has become dizzying.
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