Sand Spring Advisors LLC
A Rumbling Earth & Mortgage Malaise
November 6, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
Has anyone noticed how angry the Earth seems of late -- from Italy to Alaska, Equador to Krakatau, volcanoes keep exploding, earthquakes keep occuring. Is this building up to something big? And with regard to the Earth's assorted shiftings, what might our pi cyclical theory hold for the day of December 1, 2002?
Indeed, let's just suppose for a moment that a major earthquake were to strike California. Who might be the largest financial casualties? Families and businesses there would surely suffer the most, as well as insurance companies of course. But how would Fannie Mae fare if homeowners were suddenly stuck with mortgages still outstanding on houses that are already wiped out -- particularly in the case of homeowners lacking oh-so-expensive earthquake coverage?
In this month's subscriber-only missive from Sandspring.com, we touch on the Earth's recent rumblings and some expectations of our own along this vein. But we spend most of our time examining Fannie Mae and the mortgage industry -- an industry that recently experienced a $2 billion hedge fund blow-up, as well as delinquency and default rates clearly on the rise. Is Fannie Mae increasing the volatility of the fixed income markets by its sheer size? Our article is entitled Iceberg Risk: A Rumbling Earth & Mortgage Market Malaise, and Sandspring.com subscribers are invited to access this article using personal user-ids/passwords previously provided.
Within this 14-page write-up, we also touch upon companies experiencing extreme financial difficulties that are likely (at least in one expert's esteemed opinion) to eventually file for bankruptcy protection. Some of these names may be surprising even to the most dour equity bear. We also highlight certain chart patterns that we deem particularly strong short-selling candidates at the current time.
Non-subscribers are invited to access this November 9th article, together with our October 4th subscriber-only missive ("The Ancient History of Math, Current Pi Cyclical Rhythms, and The Macro Picture in Europe and Asia in Relation to the U.S"), and other part articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
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