Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Strongest Commodity View of 2003
January 1, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
Many people have written into us recently asking our views on gold and silver. The recent price action -- particularly of gold -- certainly has been impressive. A long dormant bottom is slowly rumbling back into activity.
But we cannot advise that just under $350 gold is a compelling buy. It's still cheap longer term, but this metal is now right into the first of two short-term technical resistance zones that we spy on a Fibonacci basis (the first being near $351 and the second up at $371). So just call us agnostic at best. Ditto euro fx which has now reached and slightly exceeded our previously espoused Fibonacci target just above 1.04. Don't try shorting either of these markets, but do take profits, and move to being flat.
But we do like to start a new year with at least one strong prognostication, so here is one: the weekly copper chart depicted below is destined for new lows. These may come down near 54 cents or even 49 cents, but they will come sometime in 2003 -- most likely by mid-year. And copper is of course a traditional indicator of economic strength or weakness, particularly in the housing sector where so much of this metal is used. Just think about it logically: In the past two years we've made it through a huge building boom and the price of copper has barely been able to rally. But that home building boom is in the process of petering out, and as it does, we smell a 4th wave period of chop in copper finally leading to 5th wave decline.
Long-time readers of these pages will remember past advice on a potential commodity spread position: We liked being long gold particularly on spread to a short position in copper. At the current time, let's amend that view to simply being flat gold, but as bearish as ever on the copper market.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our December 22nd article, "Various Perspectives on 2002 & Ongoing 2003 Concerns," together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.
Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).
Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.
If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"
Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page
Comments or Problems
Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at information@Sandspring.com
10 Jenks Road,
Morristown, NJ 07960
Phone: 973 829 1962
Facsimile: 973 829 1962
Best Experienced with
The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC
This page and all contents are Copyright © 2002 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ