Sand Spring Advisors LLC

More Complex than Before

January 8, 2003

by, Barclay T. Leib


Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-0f-Day

The Chart above first appeared back on October 14, 2002 noting a definite rhythm to the U.S. equity market in 2002 in terms of Fibonacci trading days between significant highs and lows. At the time, we were looking for a November 7-8th high toward 973 on the S&P 500 cash index.

When November 7-8th did in fact yield a high, but a high under our preferred price target zone, we got excited that an A-B-C corrective period could be ending, but were still suspicious that marginal new highs toward 973 on the S&P might linger. New highs did transpire later in November but still failed to reach our preferred Fibonacci target zone.

At this point, an already complex July-November A-B-C corrective pattern appears to have yielded to an even more complex A-B-C-D-E upward sloping wedge formation -- still in the process of completing the E wave. 34 trading days beyond the November 7-8 high, we achieved a low in the December 27-30th window. On the back of "dividend tax cut hoopla," our revised interpretation of this pattern is now that a continued rally into January 29-30 (21 trading days beyond the Dec 27-30 low) appears likely in the short term. This represents a most definite shift in our short term views expressed to subscribers in late December, but nevertheless leaves us generally unwilling to jump aboard recent strength. Despite the short-term changes, and particularly if 973 is finally achieved, we would subsequently remain bearish at least into mid-year.

Overall, this market is clearly being a "big tease." It wore out many bulls' patience and stamina when marginal new lows were made in the S&P 500 Index back in September, and now it is working to wear out the stamina and conviction of the bears. From a symmetry point of view, marginal new highs above the August 2002 high might succeed in doing just that -- particularly if accompanied by something deemed a 'fundamental change' that bears deem too tough to fight against.

Tax cuts on dividends is, at the margin, bullish for this market -- if such changes are actually passed (which we believe too many people have lept to the conclusion they will be, given Republican dominance of both Houses of Congress). But even if passed, people forget that first, companies must have the ability to generate attractive earnings to produce dividends. Besides some one-off cash hoards around at companies such as Dell and Microsoft (that might be partially dishoarded on a change of taxation rules on dividends), the ability of corporate America to really grow revenues at the current time remains poor.

Keep onsides and stay nimble, but don't buy into the concept of a huge up year for stocks.


Non-subscribers are invited to access our December 22nd article, "Various Perspectives on 2002 & Ongoing 2003 Concerns," together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.


How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.


  • Iceberg Risk: A Rumbling Earth & Mortage Market Malaise...November 2002...
    This article spends much time discussing Fannie Mae and the growing volatility of U.S. fixed income markets. Also highlighted are certain chart patterns that we deem particularly strong short-selling candidates....
    Available for Purchase at $45. THIS INCLUDES ALL ARTICLES BELOW FOR FREE.

    • 72, 12, 7 - The Ancient Language of Mathematics, Upcoming Pi-Related Cyclical Rhythms...October 2002...
      This is an updated overview of how we see 2003-2004 developing, and offers specific date clusters related to pi rhythms that should be of particular importance to the financial markets. For those interested in the history of pi mathematics through ancient times, much historical context is also offered.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The New Era of Government, Debt Default & Weakening Consumerism...August 2002...
      This article offers a long-term look at interest rate trends and its anticipated interplay with the now sagging U.S. consumer and retail sector.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Biotech Bottom?...July 2002...
      Within this article we anticipated a tradeable rally developing in the Biotech sector between July and November 2002. Several security-specific chart patterns are examined. A second update to this piece, published in mid-July, further elaborated on the broader market indices. We eventually got our bounce in these broader indices post July 23rd, but the Biotechs were quite honestly a disappointment.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • A Coincidence of Time...June 2002...
      Within this article we consider a variety of cycle timing techniques that upon occasion form important date clusters.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • In Search of Survivable Themes...May 2002...
      Within this article we consider survivable investment themes in today's markets, and two small-cap stocks from down under that may fit this bill.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Pension Asset & Liability Blues...March 2002...
      Within this article we explore much misunderstood and underestimated ERISA and FAS accounting that could cause a two-decade long malaise in corporate profitability. We also update many of our previously espoused long and short views.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Complicated Moves...February 2002...
      A temporarily bullish look at the DJIA, written in late February 2002, together with a discussion of several value stocks that we like within this market.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Zig-Zag Markets, and What Will Go Thud that Hasn't Already...January 2002...
      In this article, we discuss the path we expect into our important November 2002 cycle date, and several specific short selling opportunities in industries as far afield as trucks to bread...
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • 2002: A Golden Year? ...December 2001...
      In this article, we explore the cyclical rhythm of the gold and gold equity market, and what it portends for next year. Several stock-specific charts and fundamentals are examined...
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Kasriel to Greenspan: Farewell Soon? ...November 2001...
      In this article, across 17 chart-filled pages, Northern Trust chief economist Paul Kasriel scathingly exposes many of the flaws of Alan Greenspan's Fed, and how Greenspan may actually have set the economy up for the 2000 Tech-Wreck...
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The Cycle of War & The Agony of Debt...October 2001...
      In this article, across 12 chart-filled pages, we explore how relative geo-political calm can suddenly digress to a temper-filled period of war, as well as current fundamental pressures on the U.S. economy from excessive corporate and household debt burdens...
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Perspectives on Where We Are, and Why ISDA Documentation Will Not Prevent Derivatives Accidents, September 2001...
      An update on prior views and prognostications, as well as a discussion of a new market sector now potentially coming to life on the long side. We also examine how easy it might be for a major bank such as JP Morgan to someday suffer a serious derivatives accident
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Long_Term Equity, Gold, and K-Wave Cycle Thoughts, August 2001...
      A long-term look at our own cycle theories and how they may potentially interact with the famous Kondratieff cycle
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The Importance of June 2nd, May, 2001...
      A cyclical look at the 8.6 month cycle at work in the current equity market, and one financial stock with a nasty looking "pattern match" to a historical chart pattern
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Expert Short Picks, May, 2001...
      A discussion of the fundamental thoughts of short selling hedge fund manager James Chanos within a technical framework
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Four Themes for 2001 & Beyond, April, 2001...
      A variety of issues we see growing in importance over the year 2001, with a particular emphasis on certain issues within the U.S. food chain.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Portfolio from Hell, January 20, 2001...
      a close critique of a major mutual fund manager and a technical look at the individual equity components of their go-go portfolio.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Positive for Now, January 4, 2001...
      If the DJIA were to vault to new highs, where would the imbedded Fibonacci rhythm of its price action lead?
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Time to Start Accumulating the Golds? - Dec. 2000...
      We take a close look at four gold-related stocks that we favor.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Don't Look for a Bottom Until..., Nov. 2000...
      An update of some Fibonacci thoughts on eight selected stocks.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Diamonds in the Sky, Oct. 2000...
      A close technical look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the implications of the formation it has made.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The Signficance of Oct 27- Nov 1, Oct. 2000...
      This analysis did not pan out quite as we expected, but is a good example of how we examine the world in Fibonacci terms.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • M&A Currency Imbalances, Oct. 2000...
      An interview with a well known fund manager and economic thinker, we explore some of the macro-imabalnces as they exist in the world today.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Failed Accounting Standards, Mmm Mmm Good, and Where (if at all) to Invest in Bandwidth, July 2000...
      A three-part article outlining some of the balance sheet fun and games of today's financial world, one old-world stock, as well as our vision of the potential fallout and opportunities in the bandwidth market
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
      As we entered the summer-time harvest season, this was a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB. Much of the analysis proved premature, but it still leaves us with some long-term cyclical dates to now keep in mind.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
      This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

  • Subscribe to Sandspring.com on a quarterly basis and receive all of the the above articles, and all that follow them (a minimum of 3 more per quarter), plus all Chart du Jours (some of which would otherwise be pay-per-view) for just $85. THIS INCLUDES OUR December 22nd. article -- "Various Perspectives on 2002 & Ongoing 2003 Concerns." The article spends some time discussing somewhat disappointing hedge fund returns in 2002, and some of the reasons behind these muted returns. It also highlights our overall cyclical roadmap for the broader market indices in 2003 and certain chart patterns that we deem particularly attractive potential longs and short-selling candidates at the current time.

If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

information@Sandspring.com


Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page


Comments or Problems


Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at
information@Sandspring.com

Corporate Office:
10 Jenks Road,
Morristown, NJ 07960
Phone: 973 829 1962
Facsimile: 973 829 1962

Best Experienced with
Microsoft Internet Explorer
Click here to start.

The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

This page and all contents are Copyright 2002 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ