Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Sloppy, Choppy Mess
January 20, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
It's earnings season and CNBC is abuzz with anticipation for what the week will bring. Somehow, here at Sandspring.com we are not.
Indeed, Sandspring.com readers will likely have noticed that the pace of our commentary has dwindled of late. This is not because we have not been paying attention to the markets, but more that we do not see particularly compelling "set-ups" developing as we peruse our many charts.
2000, 2001 and 2002 were to some extent overly easy. The markets had rhythm and structure. Impulsive moves were easy to anticipate and then they promptly transpired.
By comparison, nothing is particularly easy at present. Gold has run an awfully long way, and we are non-plussed at present about chasing it. Ditto the euro. The yen appears to be setting itself up for a dollar fall, but in our estimation, the dollar will likely zig higher toward 121.50 one last time before doing so. Equities look weak for the moment, but the tone of the equity market changes almost daily. The range that has been with us since last July is slowly getting very tiresome.
Looking at the S&P 500 chart below, the 656 region on the S&P 500 charts appears to beckon over the intermediate to longer term. But the path that this market will take to get there remains elusive. We still have room to rally in the very short term up toward 972-973 to satisfy Fibonacci fractals without abrogating the blue downtrend Gann angle depicted. What might cause such a rally? And how long might it take to get there? Answers to both of these questions remain elusive. All we do know is that as long as S&P has not broken through support near 868.43, 972-973 cannot be ruled out.
Upward sloping corrective wedges can be long irritating affairs. 2003 will likely be filled with far more chop and false moves than instant gratification. So please forgive us if we simply recognize this fact and also slow down our equity market commentary. We need to maintain our psychological "freshness," and if we wish too hard for something to transpire in the market sooner rather than later while market congestion still reigns, this can eat into our ability to appropriately pounce when the situation finally becomes more compelling.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our December 22nd article, "Various Perspectives on 2002 & Ongoing 2003 Concerns," together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
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